Did you ever think you will see such a day?
Across the globe, governments are doing everything to ensure people stay home. Some are urging us like Singapore, some are coercing like Russia, some are imposing curfews like India.
World leaders are holding press conferences covering wide range of subjects all the way from Billion $ Covid-19 response stimulus to asking people to stop hoarding tissue paper rolls.
I read an article recently with a picture of Rajasthan and the headline said "will this town in India, be the next Italy". Being a hopeful Indian, I eagerly opened to read further, only to be disappointed.
No points for guessing that the article was not about the progress but about Covid-19 effects.
There are a hundreds of differences between India and Italy; economic status and population being the most obvious ones, but maybe we can draw subtle parallels between Italy and India, in-spite of these stark differences
Italy and India have very similar social model. Elders in Italy enjoy social gatherings, family ties are very strong and three generations in most families live close-by and meet daily.
India has something similar. Joint and large families live together or nearby, families have large circles that meet daily.
I wonder, if we collect data and derive an average of the number of people one meets daily in these countries, that would be proportional to the speed at which infections spread in these countries.
I think it is established that it all boils down to the control measures and the timing of it, through the phases of an epidemic.
There is a lot that this beautiful and modern country - Italy has endured over the past few weeks and is still trying to contain. Let’s break down the facts to see how Italy let Covid-19 snowball into what it is today.
When did the Covid scare get visible?
Between Feb 15 and Feb 20, Italy was reporting just 3 - 4 cases. The numbers jumped to 21 on 21 Feb and subsequently explosively increased on a daily basis.
How did authorities react in the initial phase of their Coronavirus tryst?
Between 20th Feb and 23rd Feb the cases rose from 4 to 159, almost 40x increase in three days!
During this period government sent statements listing basic containment measures like maintaining 2 meter distance between people. They also said that studies have not confirmed that virus survives on surface, hence public don’t have to be alarmed.
On 21st Feb, lock down on one affected zone in Italy was introduced and police was placed on check points. General people movement was permitted within the locked zone, however schools were suspended.
On 26th Feb, when number of cases rose to 470; post a meet between the EU countries, it was further announced that travel restrictions within EU union will still be permitted.
When did it further worsen and reach 1000+ ?
On 4th March, Italy's infection count reached 3089. At this point, all restrictions were only in the "Red Zone" the province of Lodi. Schools and Universities were suspended across the affected area.
Movement was restricted to only allow people venturing out for work, essentials and medical needs.
What was the general social scenario during this period?
People were allowed to use facilities like gym, restaurants, pubs which were still running, however, it was advised that people maintain two meter distance between people.
What were the milestone decisions taken in the last two weeks?
On 8th March, when their count was 7300+, they expanded their quarantine to a large part of northern Italy. It meant, people could go out but had to maintain two meter distance, no large gatherings were allowed though. It is claimed by media houses, that everything was still going on as normal. There were also planes and trains going to and fro the affected regions within Italy.
There was also some ruckus when a draft decree got leaked to media and people tried to rush out of the affected areas to others. Subsequently on 9th March, it was announced that the lock down would be for the whole of Italy.
Having seen how it unfolded in Italy and what they didn't see coming, Can India deal with the common issues that are possible?
- Youth living as usual : As it is unfolding, when the count has skyrocketed to about 70000 +, the biggest problem that Italy is facing is that the younger generation is not waking up to the seriousness and are generally out and about as usual being probable carriers. But, why is it happening?
Italian authorities have issued statements time and again confirming that the average age of people succumbing to the disease is around 81 years, mostly men and with pre-existing conditions. Has this not given a slightly rosy picture for the youth, who already have a general sense of being invincible?
India on the contrary has been warning people against venturing out for even work with lockdown in places.
- Mixed messaging: Going by the government notices and decrees, it is evident that the stress has always been on protecting the older.
Italy has been saying time and again with data that Coronavirus does not kill youth and women. When government started their effort to make the youth stay indoors, they seem to be finding it difficult to get people to listen.
India's curfew and message that everyone is at risk, at large has been clear, so far.
- Stricter containment measures, but too late? : It is only on 9th March and days after, that we saw some strict decisions being taken in Italy but by then, we already saw known infections rise to 10,000 people
Italy imposed a full lockdown with some exceptions in March, but by then the number of infections were 10,000 and their healthcare system was already in stress.
India already has a travel ban; to stop import of infection along with the lockdown to control spread.
There are some obvious strategic differences between Italy and India's response to Covid-19. We can only hope that Italy and India manage this crisis in their own unique way.
Sources :
MOH, Italy http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/p5_11.jsp
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